The U.S. appears headed for the largest one-year drop in murders in history, according to a well-known crime analyst. That’s the conclusion of crime statistics expert Jeff Asher, who says new national data show killings plunging at a pace not seen in modern recordkeeping. According to Asher’s Real-Time Crime Index (RTCI), the United States is on track for the biggest single-year decline in murders ever recorded — a striking reversal after the COVID-era crime surge.
Last month, FBI Director Kash Patel said the 2025 homicide rate will be the lowest in “modern history,” crediting a bureau-wide shift toward fighting violent crime. Independent analysts such as Asher say the data strongly point in that direction. RTCI is a large national database that compiles reported crime data from hundreds of law enforcement agencies and is updated regularly, long before official federal numbers are released. RTCI data currently available through October show murders down nearly 20% compared with the same period in 2024.
