The Imperial College London report also says millions would die and that health systems would be overwhelmed. To mitigate the disaster new measures would need to go into place immediately.
We can now read the Imperial College report on COVID-19 that led to
the extreme measures we’ve seen in the US this week. Read it; it’s
terrifying. I’ll offer a summary in this thread; please correct me if
I’ve gotten it wrong.
The Imperial College team plugged infection and death rates from China/Korea/Italy into epidemic modeling software and ran a simulation: what happens if the US does absolutely nothing — if we treat COVID-19 like the flu, go about our business, and let the virus take its course? ere’s what would happen: 80% of Americans would get the disease. 0.9% of them would die. Between 4 and 8 percent of all Americans over the age of 70 would die. 2.2 million Americans would die from the virus itself.
It gets worse. People with severe COVID-19 need to be put on ventilators. 50% of those on ventilators still die, but the other 50% live. But in an unmitigated epidemic, the need for ventilators would be 30 times the number available in the US. Nearly 100% of these patients die.
So the actual death toll from the virus would be closer to 4 million Americans — in a span of 3 months. 8-15% of all Americans over 70 would die.