MARCH 1, 2020
SAVAGE ANSWERS YOUR QUESTIONS
WHERE ARE WE NOW ON FIGHTING CORONAVIRUS?
* At this point, we are past containment. Containment is basically futile.
• Now we’re just trying to slow the spread, to help healthcare providers deal with the demand peak.
• In other words, the goal of containment is to “flatten the curve”, to lower the peak of the surge of demand that will hit healthcare providers.
• How many in the community already have the virus? No one knows.
• We in the US are currently where at where Italy was a week ago. We see nothing to say we will be substantially different.
• 40-70% of the US population will be infected over the next 12-18 months. After that level you can start to get herd immunity.
• Unlike flu this is entirely novel to humans, so there is no latent immunity in the global population.
MARCH 12 PODCAST: “Lies from the Left & Right about COVID-19: QUESTIONS ANSWERED BY DR. SAVAGE
HOW MANY MIGHT DIE FROM CORONAVIRUS? (ASSUMING NO DRUG IS FOUND EFFECTIVE)
* A guesstimate of deaths— indicating about 1.5 million Americans may die.
• This compares to seasonal flu’s average of 50K Americans per year.
• Assume 50% of US population, that’s 160M people infected.
• With 1% mortality rate that’s 1.6M Americans die over the next 12-18 months.]
• The fatality rate is in the range of 10X flu.
• The death rate varies hugely by age.
• Over age 80 the mortality rate could be 10-15%. Under 10 the death rate is ZERO.
MARCH 12 PODCAST: “Lies from the Left & Right about COVID-19: QUESTIONS ANSWERED BY DR. SAVAGE
WHAT IS THE LONG TERM PICTURE?
* Don’t know whether COVID-19 is seasonal but if is and subsides over the summer, it is likely to roar back in fall as the 1918 flu did
• Definitively it’s going to get worse before it gets better.
• And we’ll be dealing with this for the next year at least.
• Our lives are going to look different for the next year.
MARCH 12 PODCAST: “Lies from the Left & Right about COVID-19: QUESTIONS ANSWERED BY DR. SAVAGE
WHAT CAN WE DO NOW TO PROTECT OURSELVES?
* We currently think folks are infectious 2 days before through 14 days after onset of symptoms (T-2 to T+14 onset).
• On surfaces, best guess is 4-20 hours depending on surface type
⁃ Wood & Glass 4+ hours
⁃ Cardboard 4+ hours
⁃ Copper 4+ hours
⁃ Plastic 5.6 hours Steel 5.6 – 6.8 hours
⁃ Plastic poly surfaces 3+ days
⁃ Plastic 5.6 hours Steel 5.6 – 6.8 hours
⁃ Metallic surfaces 9+ days
• The virus is very susceptible to common anti-bacterial cleaning agents: bleach, hydrogen peroxide, alcohol-based.
• SOAP – Hand washing is NOT an old wive’s tale! Soap breaks down the virus’s skin, kills it!
• Heat also kills it – Cook all foods to 140 degrees F or hotter
• Microwave might kill it but ONLY to the extent that it heats it. And microwaves heat unevenly, so avoid this method.
• Avoid concerts, movies, crowded places.
• Stockpile your critical prescription medications.
• Move your “at-risk” parents back from nursing homes, etc. to their own homes.
THE SCIENCE OF SOAP
KILLING GERMS WITH HEAT
THINGS TO DISCUSS WITH YOUR PHYSICIAN
* DO NOT TAKE IBUPROFEN if you have been in contact with cov 19 or have the illness!
• Can exacerbate the symptoms.
• Medicines for high blood pressure and diabetes could raise your risk of serious illness
• Pneumonia shot might be helpful. Not preventative of COVID-19, but reduces your chance of being weakened.
HIGH BLOOD PRESSURE & DIABETES MEDS
