The Daily Mail:
EDITOR’S NOTE – Oh no, not models again. BUT this one agrees with something SAVAGE said this week:
“Trump is ushering in the end to an age of excess.”
“As sure as I sit here“
- Professor Peter Turchin uses mathematical models to predict political events
- He says his models predicted a rise of political turmoil starting three years ago
- This is expected to reach a peak some time in the 2020s, according to his theory
- This includes decline of living standards and declining health of the state
The rise and fall of civilisations can be predicted by a simple equation, and our civilisation is in for a fall some time soon.
This is according to Peter Turchin, from the University of Connecticut, who says mathematics can explain human behaviour far more accurately than you might think. And if his calculations are correct, the world should be prepared for years of political turmoil that will peak at some point in the next decade.
A professor of Ecology and Mathematics, Peter Turchin has led the development of a cross-disciplinary subject called ‘cliodynamics’. ‘Cliodynamics is a new ‘transdisciplinary discipline’ that treats history as just another science,’ Professor Turchin says.
He started out using math to predict human activity from 1500 B.C.E. to 1500 C.E. Then three years ago, using similar models, he began to forecast the future.
‘My model indicated that social instability and political violence would peak in the 2020s,’ he says. ‘The presidential election which we have experienced, unfortunately, confirms this forecast.
‘It did not predict that Donald Trump would become the American President in 2016. ‘But it did predict rising social and political instability.
‘And, unless something is done, instability will continue to rise.’
The academic also predicts ‘the stagnation and decline of living standards and declining fiscal health of the state, resulting from falling state revenues and rising expenses’ would bring about a potentially terminal slump.