Four little-noticed trends that suggest Trump could have an edge in November

Just The News:

Do the polls imply a Biden wave on November 3? Or are we seeing a repeat of 2016 when almost nobody predicted Trump would — or even could — win?

Almost all recent national polling has showed President Trump consistently behind Joe Biden. According to RealClearPolitics, which uses averages of released polls, Biden remains up in the national polls, the battleground states, and even the betting odds.

Here are four little-discussed trends that worry Biden supporters:

1. Betting Odds trending up for Trump

Gamblers are giving Biden the edge over Trump: 50.7% to 48.3%. But a look at the trend line shows a large decline for Biden and a comeback for Trump from just 30 days ago. On Aug. 1, the odds were 61% for Biden and 36.4% for Trump.

2. Top Battleground States better for Trump than this date in 2016

Although Trump is on the losing end right now, his position is actually slightly ahead of where he was in the battleground states in 2016. Explained another way: Hillary Clinton was beating Trump more in the battleground states in 2016 than Joe Biden is now — and we know Trump actually won in 2016. So does the current trend imply an even larger Trump win?

3. Total Approval better than Obama’s at this point in Presidency

Rasmussen Reports, the only polling organization that publishes Trump’s job approval ratings on a daily basis, finds the 45th president is not nearly as unpopular as it may seem. His total approval among likely voters frequently bests that of President Obama at the same point in his presidency. All of the high marks since April 2018 have been set by Trump (compared to Obama). On Sept. 24, 2019 Trump’s total approval hit 53% compared to Obama’s 44% on Sept. 24, 2011. 

4. Favorability Ratings better than 2016

RealClearPolitics tracking shows Trump has spent most of the past year in a better position than he was in 2016, signified by red in the graph here: Favorability.pdf

Even the most confident pundits appear to be hesitant to predict a firm outcome, based on the numbers, this time around. It’s hard to disagree with one takeaway: With the election a little more than two months away, it’s still anybody’s game.

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