So, is it a wash? We remember the ‘shy Trump voter’ from 2016, one of the theories advanced to explain why the polls were so wrong. As described by The Washington Times, shy Trump voters either avoid taking a poll altogether, or they lie to the pollster. Are you a shy Trump voter?
In 2016 Rasmussen predicted a close race with a moderate chance for Trump to win, which made them the most accurate of all pollsters. The others predicted a Clinton romp. Rasmussen is considered to be right-leaning, which could be true. And since most pollsters inhabit the far left, a little bit of right leaning might be just the thing needed to make a pollster accurate. Here are two takes on the 2020 numbers as of August 1:
Rasmussen: White House Watch – Biden Widens His Lead
Likely Democratic nominee Joe Biden has lengthened his lead over President Trump in the latest Rasmussen Reports’ weekly White House Watch survey.
The new national telephone and online survey finds Biden with 48% support among Likely U.S. Voters to Trump’s 42%. Five percent (5%) prefer some other candidate, while four percent (4%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
A week ago, the race was nearly even, with Biden edging Trump by just two points, 47% to 45%. The former vice president led Trump by 10 points – 50% to 40% – in our first weekly White House Watch survey early this month.
The new survey finds Trump with 79% of the Republican vote. Biden has the support of just as many Democrats (79%). The prospective challenger continues to lead among voters not affiliated with either major party, with a six-point advantage in the latest survey.
The Washington Times: Biden’s blind spot: Polls skew as people say ‘undecided’ when they really are Trump supporters
Trump campaign officials are convinced that polls showing Joseph R. Biden with a big lead are tilted left by undercounting Republican voters and are missing a hidden cache of the president’s supporters who are leery of pollsters.
President Trump and his campaign staff are not under the illusion that he is winning at this stage, but they think the race is much closer than polls suggest, especially in the battlegrounds of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.
“They get some of these people who say they have no opinion or are undecided when they really are Trump supporters,” said a Trump campaign insider who did not want to be identified without authorization from the campaign. “The big thing the polls are doing is just underrepresenting Republicans, and it’s blatant.”
The hidden Trump voters, according to the theory, are bullied into silence by the news media’s daily accusations that they are racist or worse. These voters then conceal their support for Mr. Trump for fear of being viewed as racist by the pollsters.