President Donald Trump is likely going to win big on election night — including in traditionally Democratic states, such as Minnesota and Virginia — but will lose the election a week later because of mail-in voting, according to a Democratic pollster.
“We are sounding an alarm and saying that this is a very real possibility, that the data is going to show on election night an incredible victory for Donald Trump,” HawkFish CEO Josh Mendelsohn said in an interview with Axios on HBO.
One scenario modeled by Mendelsohn’s polling firm even shows Trump prevailing in the Electoral College on election night, winning 408 electoral votes compared to just 130 for Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden. The model shows Biden winning California, New York, Colorado, Oregon, and the state of Washington.
That scenario accounts for the idea that just 15 percent of mail-in votes will be counted by election night. In that event, the model suggests, Biden could prevail days later — if counting goes smoothly — by 334 electoral votes to 204 for Trump.