Could Democrats still win the House majority?

Potential control of the Senate could be slipping away from Republicans, as results from the 2022 election continue to roll in. What about the House?

The assumption has long been that the chamber would go red. But this election has certainly tested plenty of assumptions.

Democrats have been projected as the winners in 188 House districts, while 208 have gone to the Republicans. The magic number for a majority is 218, so Republicans are obviously much closer.

But those raw numbers are misleading: Most of the yet-to-be-decided districts are out West — read: Arizona, California, Nevada, Oregon and Washington — where the vote counting is slower, and most lean blue. There are seven clearly blue-leaning districts in California alone that don’t have enough votes in to be called, but are very unlikely to flip.

That leaves about 30 potentially competitive but uncalled races. Republicans would only need to win 10 to get their House majority. As things stand, the latest election results show them leading in 12 of the outstanding districts. But many of the races feature substantial numbers of uncounted votes, meaning there could be significant shifts — in either direction — depending on which precincts the uncounted votes are coming from.

The Republicans remain the favorites — and indeed, House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy announced his majority transition team on Thursday — but not huge ones.


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