Biden’s Historically Spectacular Miscalculations on Afghanistan


“Rarely has an American president’s predictions been so wrong, so fast, so convincingly as President Biden on Afghanistan,” begins Mike Allen’s Axios report on the imminent fall of the Afghan national government to the Taliban. Just five weeks ago, Biden assured Americans “[T]he likelihood there’s going to be the Taliban overrunning everything and owning the whole country is highly unlikely.” What made that prediction ludicrous even at the time was that his own generals had been telling him that there were very few reliable units in the Afghan army that could resist the Taliban. The endgame was always going to be played out swiftly and with minimum resistance from the Afghan national army. In April, Biden said: “We will not conduct a hasty rush to the exit. We’ll do it responsibly, deliberately, and safely.” How about now, Joe? The Biden press is surprisingly harsh. The New York Times headline: “Free Fall in Afghanistan.” The Guardian: “Afghanistan will be seen as Joe Biden’s defeat. And it may come back to haunt him.” As late as Saturday evening, Biden insisted the drawdown of US troops would continue. But this wasn’t some calm and orderly retreat. There was a mad dash for the safety of the Kabul airport and Biden was speaking as if he had a choice in how the U.S. was going to leave.

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