All the ways pollsters and the media were wrong, wrong, wrong

New York Post:

They blew it again. After muffing it spectacularly in 2016, when Hillary Clinton was supposed to cruise to easy victory over Donald Trump, pollsters and the media should be ashamed by how wrong they got this year’s election.

Even after their cross-their-hearts-and-hope-to-die promises to fix flaws in their methodology — which always errs in their preferred, liberal direction.

Like Clinton, Joe Biden was supposed to be a sure winner — possibly in a landslide victory over President Trump. Polling “guru” Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight gave Biden a whopping 89 percent chance of winning. RealClearPolitics’ compilation of polls showed Biden with an average 7.2 percentage-point national lead; some polls had the spread in the double digits at various times. In the top battleground states, Biden averaged a 2.3-point lead, according to RCP.

Analysts talked of a “blue wave” — with Democrats winning the Senate as well as the White House, and gaining dozens of seats for their House majority. The message, amplified by a feverishly anti-Trump, left-leaning media, was clear: Donald Trump was toast, a one-term president who’d drag the whole party down. Count on it. And it sure is about time.

Ha! It’ll be days, maybe weeks, before the vote counts are finalized, and Biden may win — but it’s clear the pollsters couldn’t have been more off. Again.

Their predictions weren’t just wrong — but often wildly so. As of Wednesday morning, Biden had a mere 1.9 percentage-point lead over Trump; the prez had a good chance of prevailing overall in electoral votes.

Before Election Day, the ABC-Washington Post poll gave Biden a whopping 17-point lead in Wisconsin; on Wednesday, his lead was 0.6 percent. “That’s not a mistake. That’s not an error,” noted pollster Frank Luntz. “That’s polling malpractice, and you have to go to tremendous lengths to be able to get something that wrong so close to the election.”

Similarly, Quinnipiac had Biden with a five-point margin in Florida and four points in Ohio; Trump wound up ahead in both states — by three and eight points, respectively.

So much for a Biden blowout.

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