2-year Treasury yield tops 10-year rate, a ‘yield curve’ inversion that could signal a recession

CNBC:

The 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields inverted for the first time since 2019 on Thursday, sending a possible warning signal that a recession could be on the horizon.

The bond market phenomenon means the rate of the 2-year note is now higher than the 10-year note yield.

This part of the yield curve is the most closely watched and typically given the most credence by investors that the economy could be heading for a downturn when it inverts. The 2-year to 10-year spread was last in negative territory in 2019, before pandemic lockdowns sent the global economy into a steep recession in early 2020.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell to 2.331%, while the yield on the 2-year Treasury was at 2.337% at one point in late trading Thursday. After a brief inversion, both yields were basically trading at the 2.34% level in the latest trading.

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